Only 12.7% of Crypto Wallets Report Profits on Polymarket

Only 12.7% of Polymarket users have made profits in the prediction market, with most earning less than $100, according to onchain data. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform that allows cryptocurrency users to place bets on world events, has worked out favorably for just 12.7% of user wallets, according to new data.

Data from the onchain analytics tool Layerhub shows that 149,383, or 87.3% of the 171,113 crypto wallets on Polymarket, did not make a profit. Wallets with confirmed profits amount to 21,730, or 12.7%.

Of the wallets that reported profits, only 2,138 users made more than $1,000, with the majority of the profits being less than $100. As shown in the above graph, about 7,400 Polymarket wallets made profits in the $100–$1000 range.

Polymarkets has facilitated about 10.8 million betting trades. Between Oct. 6 and 8, It recorded more than 300,000 trades daily, owing to current world events like ongoing conflicts between nations and the upcoming United States presidential election.

It’s important to note that not all crypto wallets represent individual users. Traders may operate multiple wallets, placing high-risk, high-reward bets to increase their chances of making profits.

Almost 25,000 wallets have participated in more than 50 trades, while about 32,000 wallets have conducted between 20 and 50 trades on Polymarkets.

In comparison, almost 58,000 wallets have made between just one and five trades, indicating that most participants engage in fewer trades.

On Oct. 6, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Polymarket could more accurately predict the 2024 United States presidential election results than traditional polling.

Musk posted the tweet when former President Donald Trump was leading the Democratic Party candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a margin of about three percentage points.